Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 15.823462 18.053411 20.464726 23.263358 26.419594 29.866346 33.913023
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.097105 14.997319 18.380106 22.607346 27.738274 33.753730 41.330234
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.433826 13.637312 17.557395 22.689113 29.210255 37.199347 47.706376
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.268694 12.694429 17.067555 23.030629 30.917661 40.956069 54.660891
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.317174 11.864623 16.562445 23.198071 32.282055 44.227987 61.065023
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.413847 10.981179 15.867731 22.996706 33.067782 46.711353 66.504530
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.793572 10.413385 15.526619 23.208088 34.372098 49.906087 73.032920
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.416345 10.149568 15.573557 23.942717 36.424313 54.217681 81.335649
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.827175 9.506235 15.000674 23.702421 37.009617 56.430413 86.705434
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.072111 8.533320 13.846180 22.481174 36.018476 56.238356 88.468917
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.825117 8.340544 13.868013 23.057647 37.779929 60.217313 96.680068
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.604694 8.168522 13.902383 23.643202 39.573089 64.319089 105.274998
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.224303 7.703814 13.440701 23.412686 40.080033 66.499280 111.074601
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.838400 7.195506 12.866861 22.951556 40.174473 68.022784 115.907792
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.577930 6.882538 12.593619 22.966513 41.040271 70.808602 122.900625
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.399793 6.701664 12.532019 23.335363 42.517406 74.662998 131.846594
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.204811 6.471522 12.363241 23.496880 43.634166 77.957027 140.000732
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.974282 6.153196 12.009520 23.295773 44.088868 80.131916 146.331151
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.821058 5.970658 11.889746 23.508816 45.287119 83.636106 155.122924
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.747878 5.940078 12.051049 24.252722 47.489672 89.004017 167.454087
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.557907 5.656454 11.706770 24.009387 47.839825 91.076551 173.975555
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.270110 5.145046 10.880180 22.773264 46.235231 89.514616 173.796047
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.205442 5.099925 10.975704 23.356770 48.146434 94.493040 185.890201